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йġࡷԶ

谲ѣAndrew J. Nathan

л񹲺͹߲ϢǲѰģû˵磬Ļڼ䣬ݴйóĲϣӡë󶫴ûйĽ̸һ߶ëӽʷѧҸ˲ɷãȻҪë󶫸µԺյλôעĿӻоһЩͨЩ׺Ŀ߱棬ǵԿȫܵйƶȣעһ

ҿйġࡷⱾĹڡ¶¼¼֮ȫ桢ݿܴıըԶʷǰġ

Ȿ¼һŰ˾괺췢ڱǳȫ¼Уй½߲ߵϸ̵ٷ׵ȫ򲿷ݡΪ¼ǹйʷҪ¼֮һңййκһʷĸ߲Σδõôӽĵı

찲¼ӱѧĸɻʼܿݱҪԶı찲Ź㳡ѧľʳӮǧ֧֣ڼڵʱйٸеϽҪӦͼȴ찲Ź㳡ľʳ߳Ȼͬǽ޵ĶԻֻͨǿǳ㳡ĹУ߲߾Ļ֮صķѡ

мֵעһҪĵӰ¼ƬѧͱĹ۵㣬ˡ찲¼£עǴӡйġࡷⱾУһοϺλڱĵǰʼҹ԰й롢ԺڵأĹ۵㡣Ϻ߸ߵĴǽͨԷʽСȦСȦӲʮˣټһЩĻš

νϡؼʱ̵Ĺؼߣϡʵйܷ֮߷ͥСϡȨյľɵСƽѽίϯһְְ֮סϺ֮סլԼİ칫ԱʹļУؼĻ鶼סլٿ

ÿ죬鱨ӱȫصĴжҺͿĻ糱ˮӿϺÿʱỵ̈й붼յܱ棬ԱϺʡеģȫţΰĹ͸鱨鱨ĹҰȫԾűѼ鱨˫عܵ»磬ԾĸͳսԹҽίԱᡢũҵҵʵ粿ڸ󼶻Լפ⽻ʹŵȡЩϰѧڡĸɲӹٱˡũ񡢵ԱͷСй˵˼״ʡ쵼˹Ŀǣý塢ѧ·ͨ˽µۡϲɷõϢȡ

ͨЩϽڴԼʮ˵߲쵼дģϸϸֻξֳί͡ϡм䣨ܷӷϽȨλȫᣬйξֳίԱйʽȨ֯е߻ȫ˴߳ΪƤͼµʷĳЩ͸һ򼸸쵼ˡܵ˵Щ¶ıϸظǣδǵլԺۿΧ¼Щǵͳٵвȵȡ

Щϻй쵼ʽͷʽļ¼Լ˽̸ĲݡЩϣǿԿһСݸõ쵼֮յĳͻЩ˵ĸԿǰرֳǿվڲڷ¼ʱ˵ЩʲôαѧĶǰ˭ҪˣֿѰҽ;ӿ㳡֮ǰΪʲôȴôãΪʲôٵȴӸʲôҲϷԵǣⱾṩľ֤˵ڽؼʱ˭ͶʲôƱңǵԭ˵˸ͶƱɡ

ʾξֳίίͶƱ޳ͬѧԻǽϡôˣйʷĹϵͺܲһˡѧԻʹƽƫθĸйǸŵģѡʽᣬڸĸ˵Ĺ¡Ȼѵξֳίǵܳŵ罻ԪϲþԪ϶ȶڸĸְ񣬲ӣȸֽͳйĽйʮĹͣͣйͬϵǰš

ڣһЩйڵˣܲõǿҵķʽ-ʾġ࣬½

˭Ϊʲôôģһ棬ұ뽲ܽĹ£ҵЩڱߵҪע

¶йֻмٵ˲ܹܿõǣЩ׹֮ڣĿΪսٷڡ찲¼ǡϷѹҡ˵

йҵңҽЩҪҰΪʲôأǸױǴѧοѧڣרойκ⽻ߡѧͷѧϻдйκ⽻ߡ漰йȨ֯»ᣨעģԱҲͬй˶йصļ༭ίԱĳԱҲ־ġë˽ҽ¼ʿκŵĳ棨ע壩ҵĳЩжЩΪйѺãЩ򱻵˵δͬҵй۵ѾעҵĹ۵㣬ΪĴ湫ƽΪһԸμܿܶĿһزϵԡ˵ΪйͬĿ-ʵʷʵ

ҶԲôѵĿرзܣΪҲμҡܱйʵεǰֻŸгڱ༭ϲǴԵѧѧ񽫲࣬ͬҽе۲ǷʵΡȻģܾܾȥ

ȥһʱͨͷصóۣⱾĲʵġһԭǣͨоϱ֤಻ܱϸڡ⣬ͨͬڲϺͳеĺʶϵʵԡȻй˵ı׼ҶרγŵҲǲ¶Ѳϴ˺͹̡ˣյҲܹΰŰ๫

ĿҲ֪֪ݣϵҡ

ҵǣΪıߺ˵İȫҲܽȷϵĸ߷ʱֻҪ߿ǲϱֵʵԡ

߽ῴйġࡷһԡḻԺͿԣеݼ޷αġǰط;ӵ¼ʾʾѧ֧ǵ֪ʶ֮乫
'7dܻϷʲô飻ű¼йͬйרҶԻзֵ鱨Σڼй쵼˴绰⽻֡Щй¼ЩҪͨоܷ֣϶ǲƾġܷ֮ܶʲôеֶô꾡ϸڡ

ἰĲϰҰȫṩ鱨Ҳյĸ˵Ļ鱨Щвͨ¼ߺ˶һЩǷֲЩǾ֤ġ

Ҳ˵صÿʵȷ-ʵκ׶ˡҰȫ֪ʶ֧ѧƺƫָ̨ѧ˶޸ݡҰȫָΣ˹GeorgeSorosı鱨ǲŵġβڲᵽ뵱ʱٷûʲôͬδۡͬҰȫ¶ʮһյı෴ǲҪѧǾʳγ⡣ЩӸǣӦʹЩϡ

˽ĶͲ壬˵õһӡݶʵġЩ˰һĿˣΰʱڱ׷١찲¼йߣһڱһڱ

ϣȳİ棬׼ٳİ档һĿԣгѡҷֱȽ׵ķʽǣͬһȳӢİ棬ٸӢķİ棬İѹƪ˽ԲϣԴҪעǳͬ顣İƪ൱ӢİٽͺעϢԴİһ괺档

˵ҶΪʷʵܵ١ȻһʼѧûеĿꡣ˵ϣйġࡷʾѧ˶ǺϷġõģ˴ѧ͸ȺͶԻҪӦõ㣻һϵθĸӦвչýɡѧ֯ɹᣬȵȡȻָĸｫζŹͳʵĸ仯ǹʵ־ȹʹΨһ;

־ұȻҪǣ浽ҵζһŰ˾ҵȷйĿǰǿӲ·һ߲쵼ٴδڷˮϡڴͱ༭ʱͼĿܻ˭ֻ˺˭ЩҸ˵ģ߶ûκΡ

ҿйġࡷйȨ߽߼쵼˵Ȩй쵼˵Ĳͬϵ͸ĸ֯Ա˶ܵӰ졣

й쵼ˣͬʱռݵǡϯ;ίϯҪְйνṹȡ൱еԺȫᡣִйȨԴҪľ´һȥִСӴǸȨṹͨίԱִ쵼˵ָʾְ񽫵ʮĹϯְ񽫵ЩۼԤ˳ְͼίϯְԱĻ󷢻Ӱ죬ƱдһʱڵСƽ

һŰ˾꽭йϺίǡһʱûرĶУرա羭õ¼֪ܵʶӵԹޡйġࡷʾȨλͨ򣬿Ԫ¶ʮյͶƱȷԪѡΪǸ˳ӡˣʱΣϵ֮⡣ȥǾͻһ㣬ȥû¶ЩϸڡЩϸڽȨܽδǸαΪȨƽάԼȨҪӱɵ

ڶܵ˺ǽйڶξֳί֮⣬Ҳȫ᳣ίԱίԱڵں͹ҵְ񶼺ͽͬʱֱΪͶ꣩һŰ˾ΪŶй߶Ϊֻ̨ܵʹĴѧǿӲ·߲ϣʾģϢµСƽԪţʾìͷָǱ˺Ϊ֮ƶȡйġࡷʾѹ֮鱨͹ѼϢȺɹԱ֪ʶӡ

߶ԱΪܱйߵķӦΪ档һŰ˾¼ᶨ͡ѹ±ֳǿӲ;侲̬ȶԸ仯ľơ˵ѧ˶Ȩսʷ֤жʵԶԿ϶ʾǸǿġϽǸߡһרΪԭ򣬲ܶôģȥάһԭ򡣸ݲϣѪ¼ӦκֱΡ´෴ɱ¼ǷˣѵĲӵʱѾʧء

ֻһֶԪĻ£ڴҵбֳɫ͡йҪǣվʷĴһߡйְߵ֣ţйֻмϸκ˼壬ܶȹĿǰΣڡ찲¼ļ꣬˾кܴӰ죬ⷴӳʵʩѹʿرɱֽ־ϸɽ硢ڹ϶ȨȡǿӲ·ߡϴݻĵλɸĸͬƹϵҪϰ

һŰ˾ѽȻξ֡ӳһŰ˾ξίԱ͹ҽίԱΣΪ˰ѧ˶У԰֮иŬ޸ɵʱιԺ鳤һŰ˾꣬ǿӲ·߲ԵϸڣԹҰȫװ췢ָʾΪξֳԱ쵼й鱨ͷ鱨ھ˾ϵһŰ˾굣ɽʡίǵĽƵʱԲѪʽΣͬĽιϵȾʡ쵼֧ǿӲ·ߡһŰ˾֮һϵнΪξίԱ˵ĵλܵⱾĴ͹ЧΪĸ￪ٸĿռ䡣

ڶʮξίԱУ˵ĵλڡйġࡷĳܵ𺦣쵼ڡ찲¼еöӦܵ˻ȥʧơڹѧ¼ķӦӦеεĵСƽһžȥô˵ڱҲǱȵʱֵͬˡǱϽ-ĸߣôʱҪеΩһʼԸ֧Э·ߡ˵ţʾ߶˺͵е⣬ȨþӣֲѪ쵼˼øĸͶŵ·ߡ˵ĽӰԸĻйġࡷʹıڡ찲¼Ķ۳ֿԣֲ𺦵Сƽš˵ǵĺϷĲŲ

ʾڵʱͬСƽһ𷢻ӺãѾȥһԪϣǵ˵սЩ֮һṩģЩϵƲ⣺ߣͬϵе档õױһžŶĵʮĴε϶ʧȥȨ꣬ھеĶŵȨȦӣ˲Χм䣬ҽǷڡ

һŰ˾-¹ؼеԪУѾⱾʱȻΨһԪϱһѲԾһŰ˾ξֳίҦֶѧĵⳬҦһžȥʱе쵼ˣίгϣͬһ͸ԪϵϢΪѹǶѾʧơݣϣͬڸܱ̣ڱҽˣĿխ

֮£ڸ߼쵼еİˣһŰ˾ñ档֣Ƕ޳ɸĸⲢζͬߵĹ۵㣩йFһŰ˾ϺгԸĳǲӣͨѪķʽʾ𻷵ʱίǼгһͬʾѧԻѪ˵ҪܵʧǱڵ档

ξлˡһŰ˾ǸũҵóĸվһߣᳫͬѧԻһŰ˾굣μ첿ξвͬѧԻѧʾĸָءšʱ칫ε¼ұ޳º·ߣʧ֮ҲվԾѹûκΡʱʡʡͽʡʡºɣԲͬѧĶԻξ֮һĹٺδʾȡº·ߣҶǷʹûзȨְҪѹйġࡷܼǿЩ˽иĸ

ĳЩξ֮Ȩ͡йġࡷһϵܴھܾμѹְȻڰ״̬߶ڼ¼еΪӦй߲ͬǸʿڱļ޵ģҲʾش͹ѧսΣʼʱ뿪ǣ˷Ĺؼ̨Сƽ֧֡ľѶԵСƽҳԭ֮ϣ֪Ҫѹʱְǵֿ

й߻ԲͬĹ۵㿴һ⡣Ծܾ򷴶ѹԱҴͳĹԱķӦκͶӵҳϷͻʱֻˡ⣬йġࡷʾξֳίҪصܾ飺ֲʱҪҵСƽԪϡϻһʾСƽͨԾʵоԿƣξֳίΣҪύСƽԪϣ˾гݵֶʹȨЩỺй߶ƺжϡ

Ѿ̫ϣ޷ط̨ȻܹΪϴˢκϢЩǰЩռݴ뵽طҪλáЩ˵УҪĿǰᵽ¼ұΪξίԱ͸Ȩº֮һܿܵδ

һŰ˾֮ξֳίʯʱºͰȫǿԴξֳίĹؼϽпǲ޳ʹȫ¼ΪҽʮվϵǸؼȨ޳ʹһηСƽûͶ¹ؼһƱֹʵʩעǵѶϺ˽ⷴԵСƽͽ͵ġĶҡԼαΪԪѡԵĽӰˣΪ̫һž꣬ڽĶشٶݡһ̫ˣܳΪȨ֣ڵҲǾӰ졣

һŰ˾֧һξֳίǺһֱܵҫЯҫȥȼѧ˶޳ѧĶ޳ͨԻǵҪͨףǿԿڹؼʱ̣ţȫ汨й¼˴ٳ˵һΣҲΨһһιʷϵɡԡǺͺξֳίзʹ˶ϴѾʵϽˣӵйЭ̻鸱ϯְλ

ΪǶԽξо󲿷ݣԱ¶һŰ˾ǵΪòôҲûʲôµġǻ߾뱱̫Զְλ̫ͣڱ¼ܳеΡְλߵǹҸϯĽӰ˺ΡһŰ˾صείǡʱڱԭۺ֢ûֱӲ¼ξֳί嵱ʱֻóξеڶίԱ꣬һŰ˾ǼϾ˾ԱϾûв뱱¼ľ֮һξίԱһŰ˾궼ʡʡίǣԶ뱱Щ˶ڷйġࡷᰲ֮أǵ̬ȶڵڽǷҪθĸĵ·ǳؼ

ξƺ޳ɸĸĶȻڵڶ֧ߵӰ죬ϽĽͶθĸＸܡ桶йġࡷģȻҪ̱档

ΪʲôĶԼȥ鿴찲ŵݱڻıԿݴ𰸻Ѱʶй߻ơֻҪ൱һ˲ԸһĿƺΪ⣬Ӧ϶߲мû֪򿴹йġࡷж׵ݡΨһ⣬ʱ߲㡣ʮǰڽϵͲְˣдıǲμӵľ˽⡣ΪʹôȨҲܲ鿴ЩΪӴЩм¼뾭ξͬ⣬Ҫø߲֪֪Щ¼ЩʲôóȻһ⣬ؽ޷ԤϵΪƽϵȨܲԸΪȷĺðա

ͼͨd࣬ʹξԡ찲¼ϣǣƷйضֻϵеˣӶжϵḶ̌ƶй˵ĸδչ

ΪһˣҲԸйΪһѧߣҰʵԺ׼ȷԷӰ֮ϡйġࡷ˵Ҫǣǰй߲ļ¼йȥʮĹ켣δṩ˻Ķ졣Ҳұ˵ģ߶ԴûΡ

Ҳ˵Ľ¶ǵСƽ͡ϡáµһʮջǷʱѾҪⶼҪѰ˵ָû¶һŰʮµξ־飬ʵϸ˵Сƽ׼߷쵼˾ʽȨ⣬ͨ˵ڶ飬ͱһ˺ԪϣԹ۲ԱݲμξֻξֳίȨ

ĳ̶ֳϽһŰʮԪϸո˳ξֳίʱͨЩҪʾʱЩͬ־ءҲǴСƽ֮ڳֵĹʶѵһַʽµ˵Ĺʶʹͬ־൱ɡ
'5cָйøĸڰʮкڣһ쵼˿ʼƶʱ򣬸ĸѣ߱۸Ӽҡ־漤ҵ£һŰľ飬ĿĿǷֹϵΣּǷȷЩһŰ˾귢ӵá

йġࡷʾΣڼ䣬ܲҪ˽ʽְǹϯǵ쵼ڲܼࣩμҪξֻ顣ҪľڵСƽסġʾΪҡǵ˵⡣˽ϵľĴְѡӽפ찲ţѹ֮ȷ߷򣬼ȥʮľøĸͶţܴһ¼ҵɴۡ

˲ǺЩɫʮգԹȨĸ֪Щ鷢ҪеںܶΣ˱Թ˵ҪҪͷҵӰ̫ǶԵ͹ҶáӦ-ˣҪȥҲôס

СƽȨҲǾԵġ֮ǰҪõԪϵͬ⡣Щˣ֪ڡ찲¼ǰûй̶ѡΧûолʷСƽټһŮɵСȦӣǹϵĳԱҲδְߵģõġ֮ЩƺĹְҵģ˱˺Ȩͬ³ƺԼЩëϵر𣩣ΨһŮԵӱûԵĸɫǹ𾴵ѹܶסĵûбڣԶμԪȦӵģйȻԪ˧ǰ飬˳Ȧӵɽڵ½͡

С鹲ĴΣĸҪԡɳӡСľξֳίίģǰܵ˺ԪϵĴලֱִС

ԪϻȤԼټǣܽɾȨǹ۲쵽ηƺҪ˭ʱͳ˽Ȼ˺͵˶μԪʾ֪Լĵλ𲻾һھͺܼңȻηˡӱ̣ÿλ鷢һΡṩƽϢûвͬڵ˵Ĺ۵㡣

˵ϡֻǶݵΪܻãǵĴʾһЧĻԭԭȥԮȻᱻԮֻҪйԼһëɵĳͳͳй쵼˵Ľɫǡܷ֮⡹extra-constitutionalģǡϷillegitimateйιɣȻ漰⽫ƶĺͥΪʵַΣ˼룺漰ʲôԼΪҪľǺϷġ

ʲôҪôһܷ֮ĻΪҪйġࡷǿһδ˵Сƽһ쵼ˣΥԼ־ǡ塹factionalism

ڡйġࡷУǿйͬ˹ϵϣΰȨͬߺʶ̬ʵϡԪжпɽһ˺һ쵼жźҡʹЩ˹ϵɵģǵʱëƶѾʧܣҪһδδ￴ĳͻǼѾɵʹսϲϷſԱã֮ʧȥƣͨѯʽ쵼ȨҪȶΪģοƣͨǿļƻͼ˷֮ľöȱָ޴Ĺͨĸǳ̲߶ǺϷ롣ʾЩڰʮչ׷ݵ硣

κƶУܹߵˣǶǴǲȱٵġйƶУǷͥûпԽֵƶȻȨĺⶼҪƣγɵСƽԹѹҪĳеΡЩˣǻϲͬ˵ľҲֽܾվԼǶԵĶ-Ǹоһƶȱ

һŰ˾һιйصǾӵļҪԡСƽʹȨҪһݣǹȨǿԻСƽһŰ˾ûзһְҲëĻ߲쵼˷ԡ͹һѾʱȻʹȨְҲǽͼڶ-˳͹쵼˸λְ-ίϯίϯǵǡװװйžȫصľҲװ죬ǽڱ鷴侯칫¥Ҫľ

һŰ˾꣬ίϯ־ίʵʩҪɵľͺϴҪӿ찲Ź㳡ʱЩ¶ǹԺξκγԱָ̨⣬ͨԼϲ¡뾯־ֳ뾯֡ëһ˿սѣȽĵ͹쵼˺Ԫϵĸ˰ȫҲëʱһԸ˰ȫĿǣΪƷ쵼˵κͼҪϰ

Ȩ˻ǻǱ߹̵ʽʽ𺳡磬ξֳϣҵĶس۵ĳ򡢲γһһԭ¶еطҪ쵼˲μӵξȫׯϣϺĻʼҴͳƺȻֳ̳ûгͬ͢ص˽¶-໥졢Ǵߡ˳šͼ䡣綼ڵⶼʵֶۣ˱棬û׼κ˶жҲڵ˵ĸȨû˸Ҳȡж

˵ιʱʱ䣬һ˵;ľԡһ£ʡʾĶ̶˳ԾֻϸĶǵıܿһ㣬Ϊ缣Ҫڲʽ޳ɵߵĲ˵֮¡Ըί͸ֵļҲˡʵȻǸʡ˿ڶŷ޹ô󣬸ʡ봦ԼǵĲͬ·ʽҪӦҷӳط쵼˲ִͬͬļֵۡ

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